1824: The Arkansas War

D ECEMBER 18, 1824

"Well, that's it," said Adam Beatty. "We'll have a merry Christmas, gentlemen. With Louisiana's vote having come in, everything's been reported."

At the head of the table in the boardinghouse, Henry Clay rubbed his face wearily. "Summarize it, please."

"Nationwide, Jackson has the plurality of votes, though not by as large a margin as it appeared he would in midsummer. That's the 'Arkansas effect,' most likely, coming in at the last minute. Still, he's got eighty-five electoral votes, just a little under one-third of the total. Adams comes a pretty close second, with seventy-six."

"In short," Peter Porter said bluntly, "our two principal enemies-who've now formed an alliance, with Adams willing to throw his support to Jackson-have a total of one hundred and sixty-one votes. Which is a clear majority in the electoral college. And the same percentage, roughly speaking, in the popular vote."

"A little over sixty percent," Beatty agreed. "But it really doesn't matter, because the electoral college is not where the issue gets settled, according to the Constitution. Since no single candidate won a majority, the three top candidates are the ones chosen from by the House. And there-"

He smiled widely. "Henry's the third man. Clear-cut, no question about it. He got forty-two votes to Crawford's thirty-four and Calhoun's twenty-five. All we've got to do, gentlemen, is turn that forty percent in the electoral college into fifty-one percent in the House."

Put that way, Porter mused, it didn't sound so bad. But the sense he'd had of a situation steadily unraveling was getting stronger all the while. Because the other way to look at it was that the man who could only muster:

Porter was good at arithmetic. Silently, in his head, he did the calculations.

And was appalled. Henry Clay had gotten barely sixteen percent of the popular and electoral votes. Which Beatty was cheerily projecting he could triple-more than triple-in order to get elected, purely and solely based on political maneuvering in the House of Representatives.

That it could be done, Porter didn't much doubt. Clay's ability to manipulate the House was practically legendary by now. But could a president elected in such a manner actually carry out the tasks and duties of the nation's chief executive in the years to follow? That was another matter entirely.

His musings were interrupted by Clay's voice. "Peter, are the rumors we've been hearing about Van Buren true, in your estimate?"

A bit startled, Porter looked up. "Well:It's hard to know. Van Buren plays the game very close to the chest. But I think it's likely, yes. Jackson, unlike Adams, has always had a clear stance on states' rights, which is what matters to the New York Radicals. They simply don't have the same concerns regarding Arkansas and the issues surrounding it that Calhoun's people do, and some of Crawford's." He cleared his throat. "Some others of Crawford's, I should say, since they were in that camp themselves."

Clay nodded, his expression weary but still alert. "In other words, Crawford's camp is breaking up."

"Pretty much, yes. His Northern supporters shifting toward Jackson, his Southern ones in our direction. More toward Calhoun than us, though, and keeping in mind that it's certainly not a split down the middle. Most of his support was in the South, to begin with. New York was really his only major Northern stronghold."

"The key's the South, then," stated Josiah Johnston. "It's that simple. We haven't got enough, even getting all of Calhoun's and Crawford's votes. And we can't possibly hope to crack anything away in New England, that matters. Or Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Or Tennessee."

He stopped there, a bit awkwardly. Porter didn't blame him. He could have added or Kentucky, probably. The two most populous border states had gone for Jackson, even Clay's home state.

Clay sat up straight. "All right. I agree with Josiah. It's simple enough. We've got to keep Calhoun solid-that, whatever else-and win over Crawford's Southern supporters. Then-"

He took a deep breath. "Ignore New England altogether. Ignore Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Go straight at the Southern congressional delegations, and a few of the softer Western ones, like Indiana and Illinois. We can assume that Ohio and Missouri will remain solid for us. Persuade them that the allegiance many of their states showed for Jackson was an error, produced by the fact that news of Arkansas-and Jackson's disturbing reaction to it-hadn't had time to reach the populace before they voted. Surely they would have voted otherwise, had they known."

"Remember Arkansas Post!" Beatty exclaimed. "That's the drum we beat."

Clay looked around the room. Everyone nodded. Even Porter, in the end. What else was there to do?

1824: TheArkansasWar