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Harry read,

The Dragon stirs from his eastern throne,

Walks west.

The Feathered Serpent, plague-hardened,

Flies over ocean sea,

Flies east.

Serpent and Dragon, the mortal duel

And Serpent feasts on holy flesh…

'Geoffrey Cotesford believes he now understands these words, four centuries old. This is how he has interpreted them.

'The Dove is a strong man. Strong, clever, determined. He is a force, elemental, loose in our world. He must be, or else why would the prophecy speak of him? West or east, where he goes others will follow. If he goes west, he will surely lead the conquest of lands teeming with wealth and strange peoples – lands unknown to the ancients, and to our geographers, perhaps. On the other hand, if the Dove turns east, with the same energy and single-minded purpose, he will lead a ferocious war against Islam. And he will use the Engines of God to do it. That's what Geoffrey argues. It all fits together, Geoffrey says.'

'Better weapons are always an advantage,' Abdul said. 'But Muslims aren't fools. Advantages tend not to endure.'

'Yes, that's what Geoffrey says. In time the spies of Islam will acquire the secrets of the engines. And what's more, Islam and Christianity have no means of achieving peace with each other: history shows that, says Geoffrey. So the war will be unending, the destruction on both sides will be multiplied – the use of the engines won't lead to victory but to catastrophe. From London to Baghdad, Geoffrey predicts, not a stone will be left standing. The only victors will be the warlords – whether fighting in the name of Christ or Muhammad it won't matter.

'And like all warlords, like the Mongols, they will need to feed their armies on further expansion. When the destruction of their homelands is complete they will turn their attentions outside Europe, south to Africa – and east into Asia. There will be more carnage. But China, immense, populous and ancient, will survive, as it survived the Mongols.'

'I can believe it,' Abdul said. 'How many warriors could England muster? A few thousand? It's said that the Chinese emperors command an army of a million men.' He read, '"The Dragon stirs from his eastern throne, / Walks west." I think I understand.'

Harry nodded. 'Geoffrey says this means that the Chinese will pursue the broken European armies back across the continent, all the way to France, perhaps, and even England. The last remnants of Christianity and Islam alike will become vassals of the Dragon Throne.'

'And when they have taken Europe the Chinese will face the Ocean Sea themselves.' Abdul sat forward, fascinated. 'I sailed with the Chinese, under their great eunuch admirals. Will they take their turn to explore the Ocean Sea?'

'No,' said Harry firmly. 'Not according to the prophecy. Rather, the dangers of the Ocean Sea will come to haunt them…'

Even if the Dove did not sail west, other Europeans would surely try the journey, fragile ships from Portugal and Spain and England probing ever deeper beyond the curved horizon. Others, then, would fall on the shores of the western countries – not the empires of Asia, but lands unknown to Europe, said Geoffrey.

These more tentative explorations would benefit the strange empires of the west more than the Europeans. The Dove would have conquered – or at least he would have set an example of conquest and colonisation, as opposed to reasonably peaceful contact and trade. These more timid explorers would be overwhelmed. The strange oceanic kings would indulge in trade, but in time they would acquire the newcomers' weapons and ships, take them apart, learn to make their own. They would suffer from plagues brought from Europe, but not in great numbers, and the generations to come would acquire immunity.

And a western empire, ruled by the 'plague-hardened' people of a 'Feathered Serpent', would learn of the rich lands across the Ocean Sea.

'They will come,' said Harry. 'Pushing across the Ocean Sea, a conquering fleet heading east where the Europeans might have gone west. On the coasts of England, France and Portugal they will fall on an overstretched Chinese empire.'

Abdul read,

The Feathered Serpent, plague-hardened,

Flies over ocean sea,

Flies east.

Serpent and Dragon, the mortal duel.

'But the western conquerors will unleash a horror not known in our continent since before the Romans.'

'"And Serpent feasts on holy flesh."'

'They eat the flesh of humans. They sacrifice human lives in great numbers. Their wars, Geoffrey predicts, will be terrible slave-raids, as captives from across a devastated Europe are hauled to their temples to die under the knives of the priests. Whole populations will be consumed…

'This, and no more,' Harry said. 'The prophecy lets us see no further.'

Abdul sat as if stunned. Then he got up and paced around the room. He took a bowl of jasmine blossom and breathed deeply of its scent. 'All this,' he said at last, 'if this Dove turns east and not west. But these final lines: "All this I have witnessed / I and my mothers." What does that mean?'

'Geoffrey says that Eadgyth was not a prophet, not a seer who could see the future, but – a puppet. The words were put into her mouth by a Witness, just as the line says, a saint of the far future – a woman, Eadgyth always believed – who will live at a time of the terrible calamity of the western invasion of the east, or at least fears its likelihood. And this person, wishing to avert the horror, will find a way – well, to speak to a woman of her own deepest past.'

'How?' Abdul demanded.

Harry smiled. 'If I knew that I'd sell it, and wouldn't be here talking to you. In fact, Geoffrey believes we are dealing with two prophecies here – or two witnessings. He says the Dove was meant to go west. Somebody else found a way to deflect him from his true course – somebody else has already meddled in history, and is trying to send the Dove the wrong way, east, equipped with the Engines of God. And it is a second witness who is now trying to reverse things through the Testament.'

Abdul thought that over, and laughed. 'Geoffrey says, Geoffrey says. These scholars are troublesome to men of the world like us. I suppose these Witnesses are scholars too, competing to muck about with history. And now we're meant to put it all right by packing the Dove off to the west?'

'That's the idea,' Harry said unhappily. 'I suppose the question is, what do we do now?'

Abdul sat again. 'I think we have a responsibility, even if the chance of the witnessing coming true is small, to try to avert this huge destructive disaster of the future of Serpent and Dragon. Anything would be better than that.'

'Agreed. So we must do something about it.'

'Yes. But you feel as uncomfortable about this sort of talk as I do, don't you, Harry?'

Harry shrugged. 'I'm just a merchant. I sell wool. That's all I know.'

'Yes.' Abdul gazed out of the window, and the dusty evening light caught the planes of his face. 'And I, I have always been outside the current of the world. I'm happy with that. Happy to observe, not to be involved. I'm content with my role here in the palace. In Granada, I'm trying to resolve problems, Harry. To save people. To restore equilibrium, if you like.'

'Not to change history.'

'Indeed. And yet here we are.'

Harry nodded. 'Where do we start?'

'We need to find this Dove of yours,' Abdul said firmly. 'For, it seems, all of history turns on his decisions. He must be a navigator, a mariner, a captain, or a ship-owner; he must be seeking sponsorship for his western voyages. These navigators all know each other – and are jealous of each other too. I will see if I can track him down.'

'And then what?'

'Then we will decide what needs to be done to send him on his proper way, off into the Ocean Sea.' He frowned. 'It occurs to me – this strange witnessing has fallen into the hands of our family. But families have a way of proliferating. What if there are others, Harry, others out there like you and me, likewise armed with the Testament of Eadgyth – or worse, the Engines of God? And what if one of those other unknown cousins has decided to work the other way – to send the Dove, not west, but east?'

Harry was appalled; that thought hadn't occurred to him. 'If so they will be looking for the Dove, as we are,' he said.

'True. We must keep our eyes open. And if we encounter them,' Abdul said calmly, 'we must deal with them.' And he pressed his nose to a jasmine petal, as if for comfort.